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 Thursday, July 29, 2010
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NESDB: Thai GDP at -7.1% in Q1-09, at -2.5% to -3.5% in 2009
Posted on Monday, May 25, 2009 |
BUSINESS NEWS:
NESDB: Thai GDP at -7.1% in Q1-09, at -2.5% to -3.5% in 2009
The state economic think tank has confirmed that Thai economy has contracted by more than 7% in the first quarter of this year.
The National Economic and Social Development Board reported earlier on Monday, Thailand’s GDP was minus-7.1% in Q1-09.
This is the second-consecutive quarter of an economic contraction following the minus-4.3-% GDP during the last three months of 2008.
NESDB Secretary-General, Ampon Kitti-ampon, says more-severe-than-expected economic slowdown around the world hit the export sector badly and caused Thailand to suffer harsher contraction.
He adds the local economy will likely continue to shrink in the second quarter but at a milder rate if domestic political situation is calm enough and all state investment projects are started as planned.
Ampon went on to say that the overall situation should then reverse to growth again in the fourth quarter.
However for 2009, the agency estimated Thailand’s economy will contract 2.5 - 3.5 %. It earlier pegged this year’s GDP at 0 to minus-1%.
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BoT not surprised by official data of -7.1% GDP in Q1-09
According to The Thai central bank, today’s report of a serious economic contraction in the first three months of this year has not exceeded its expectation.
Bank of Thailand’s Senior Advisor, Amara Sriphayak, affirms today a minus-7.1-% economic growth rate in Q1-09 remains within the bank’s forecast.
Amara says the BoT earlier estimated that Thailand could suffer a contraction of 6-7% with only a 5-% chance that the rate could be more severe than this range.
And with the official result from the National Economic and Social Development Board that has confirmed the bank’s prediction, Amara states the BoT will keep its 2009 economic growth forecast at minus-1.5 to minus-3.5%.
Meanwhile, she adds there have been positive signs from some industries during the months of February and March as their production capacity has risen from 50 - 60 %.
Despite this, the central bank pledged to continue monitoring the situation before it can be certain that the improvement is here for good.
And while it is setting hopes on the government’s latest round of economic stimulus measures to help restore business confidence the Bank of Thailand concedes that domestic investment will not likely recover before the end of this year due to continued economic slowdown around the world.
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Finance adamant higher oil tax affects no consumers
The Finance Minister is adamant recent oil tax increase will not hurt consumers in any way. Meanwhile, it is reported that the state imposition of higher sin tax has attracted more cigarette smuggling.
Deputy Finance Minister, Pruttichai Damrongrat, defends the government’s decision to increase excise tax on fuel sales which came into effect since May 14 by insisting that such a policy will not have any direct impact on the public.
Pruttichai affirms retail oil prices will not go up because of higher fuel tax while stating that additional tax collection is needed for the government to implement many public projects such as healthcare and transport system.
The deputy finance minister’s statement followed earlier cries from the private sector that the timing for higher tax policy was bad and of no productive use.
Pruttichai adds the ministry s keeping a close eye on the effect of an increase in tax charged on coffee beans and tea leaves after local growers have complained that they are being pressured to sell their produce at cheaper prices because of the new policy.
He assures that the Finance Ministry will be ready to review the measure if the claim has strong ground.
Meanwhile, Pruttichai says higher sin tax which has been implemented since the beginning of this month has caused a surge in the smuggling of cigarette lately.
He states the number of smuggled cigarette cases rose from 280 to 400 per week while total fines from such cases also surged from two million baht a week to 4.8 million baht.
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Labor Minister insists on Social Security contribution cut
The labor minister insists to go on with the plan cut on the Social Security contribution despite criticism from the opposition.
Labor Minister, Phaithoon Kaeothong, affirms his decision to cut the mandatory contribution to the Social Security Fund as the measure is expected to enable business owners to maintain more fund to operate without having to let go of their staff while employees will have extra cash to spend each month.
Phaithoon cited the success of such a policy during the Asian Economic Crisis in his determination to continue with this move.
He insists that the implementation of the contribution cut will not affect the benefits currently offered to those protected by the Social Security Fund.
The Cabinet approved on May 6 the suggestion by the Social Security Committee to reduce the contribution from both employers and employees from 5% to 3% of the salary or the wage. However, the government will continue to pay a 2.75-% contribution to the Fund.
The cut is expected to benefit nearly 580,000 people across the country.
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Thai public debt stands at 40.9% of GDP at end of Mar’09
Thailand’s public debt level has surged to beyond 40% of GDP as of the end of March.
Public Debt Management Department Director-General, Phongpanu Svetarundra, says on March 31, 2009 the country has recorded public debt of 3.69 trillion baht or around 107.4 billion dollars. This amount is 83.86 billion baht higher than the previous month and now equivalent to 40.9% of Thai GDP.
Out of this, more than 2.3 trillion baht or 68.8 billion dollars are direct government borrowings and some one trillion baht or 29.5 billion dollars belong to non-financial state enterprise offices. The rest is shared between the Financial Institutions Development Fund and other state enterprises.
And among them, direct state borrowings recorded the highest rise of 77.8 billion baht or 2.2 billion dollars followed by a 17.6-billion-baht increase in state enterprise debts that the government has acted as a guarantor.
SET MONITOR:
Thailand’s main stock index finished slightly lower on Monday after investors selectively cashed in on earlier gains.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand composite index slipped 3.5 points to 550.5 with active volume of 20.4 billion baht or about 594 million dollars.
Local institutions’ net sell for today amounted 546 million baht or nearly 16 million dollars followed by foreign investors of 247 million baht or some seven million dollars. And retail investors were the only net buyers of 793 million baht which is around 23 million dollars.
The SET index shed slightly more than 0.5% following profit-taking particularly in the energy sector.
Analysts said the Thai market slid also because of heavy gains it has enjoyed in the previous sessions.
| Index Performance |
|
|
Last |
Change |
%Change |
High |
Low |
Volume
('000 Shares) |
Value
(M.Baht) |
|
SET Index |
550.51 |
-3.51 |
-0.63 |
558.36 |
547.60 |
5,416,270 |
20,367.38 |
|
SET100 Index |
834.42 |
-7.09 |
-0.84 |
847.67 |
829.43 |
3,733,052 |
18,536.95 |
|
SET50 Index |
390.71 |
-3.50 |
-0.89 |
396.85 |
388.26 |
2,525,634 |
15,592.90 |
|
mai Index |
177.02 |
-0.38 |
-0.21 |
179.19 |
176.49 |
231,711 |
457.33 |
| Source: The Stock Exchange of Thailand. |
| Net Buy/Sell |
|
Investor Type |
Buy
(M.Baht) |
% |
Sell
(M.Baht) |
% |
Net
(M.Baht) |
|
Local Institutions |
3,910.84 |
18.74% |
4,461.76 |
21.39% |
-550.92 M |
|
Foreign Institutions |
1,665.42 |
7.98% |
1,913.17 |
9.17% |
-247.74 M |
|
Retail Investors |
15,287.35 |
73.27% |
14,488.69 |
69.44% |
798.66 M |
| Source: KGI Securities (Thailand) PLC. |
SET SPOTLIGHT:
Property developers enjoyed active trade on the back of falling loan interest rates
Share prices of property developers have been enjoying active day of trade on Monday since the opening bell.
Brokers said today’s rallies in the property sector should be attributed by falling interest on loans that followed calls from the Bank of Thailand and the government for cheaper rates to help boost the economy.
Trade in the property sector has been lively since last week when three major commercial banks announced a rate cut by 0.05 – 0.25%.
And to name a few, Supalai ended up more than 1% at 3.32 baht and L.P.N. Development added nearly 2% at 4.50 baht while Preuksa Real Estate surged 5% to 8.15 baht.
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SVI recorded serious gains following a 30.55% share buy-up offer
This morning, SVI Public saw its prices up more than 10% to 1.61 baht while the local market slumped by more than 1%.
The price surge followed the Stock Exchange of Thailand’s removal of its Halt order on SVI stock trading.
The SET slapped the “H” sign on SVI last Friday following big lot transactions that are said to likely have effects on the company’s major shareholder structure and management.
The company, on Monday, explained that MFG Solutions Inc was the big-lot buyer of 30.55% of SVI shares.
And this evening, SVI prices closed up 3.5% at 1.45 baht.
SET HILIGHT:
QHOP: Quality Hospitality Leasehold Property Fund
XD @THB0.199 Payout 12 June 09
SIRIPF: Baan Sansiri Property Fund
XD @THB0.182 Payout 12 June 09
BKKCP: Bangkok Commercial Property Fund
XD @ THB0.185 Payout 15 June 09
SET Today: Weekdays 6:30 pm
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Posted on Monday, May 25, 2009 (Archive on Monday, June 01, 2009)
Posted by suchitra Contributed by host
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